New Vehicle Sales Expected to Drop in June, Closing a Second Down Quarter in 2020, Edmunds Forecasts
Monday, June 29th, 2020
The car shopping experts at Edmunds say that June will be another down month for auto sales as the industry continues to combat market challenges posed by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, forecasting that 1,080,656 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in June for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 12.8 million. This reflects a 28.7% decrease in sales from June 2019 and a 3.6% decrease from May 2020.
Edmunds experts note that sales are also down for the second quarter in a row this year, forecasting sales of 2,914,860 new cars and trucks in the second quarter, which reflects a 34.3% decrease from the second quarter of 2019.
"It comes as no surprise that the second quarter was a disappointing one for the automotive industry, but the good news is that auto sales didn't come to a complete standstill either," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "The fact that retail sales — not fleet — are what kept the market propped up speaks volumes to the resilience of the American consumer. And the way that dealers were quick to pivot to online sales also underscores the incredibly responsive and resourceful nature of the industry in the face of adversity."
Although Edmunds data shows a steady growth in sales since the end of March, analysts caution that some of the strains of the pandemic are starting to show as more shoppers return to the market.
"The marketplace is growing less inviting as automakers pull back on incentives and inventory dwindles due to factory shutdowns, particularly when it comes to trucks, which have been the one bright spot for sales during the pandemic," said Caldwell. "Current sales paint an optimistic picture given the circumstances, but between COVID-19 and today's politically charged climate, the industry needs to prepare for uncertainties ahead."
JUNE SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
|
Sales |
2020 June |
June 2019 |
May 2020 |
Change from |
Change from May |
|
GM |
167,499 |
253,879 |
176,874 |
-34.0% |
-5.3% |
|
Toyota |
159,752 |
201,887 |
165,055 |
-20.9% |
-3.2% |
|
Ford |
143,192 |
218,691 |
154,775 |
-34.5% |
-7.5% |
|
FCA |
126,496 |
206,083 |
135,542 |
-38.6% |
-6.7% |
|
Honda |
111,377 |
135,901 |
120,977 |
-18.0% |
-7.9% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
103,812 |
122,890 |
104,786 |
-15.5% |
-0.9% |
|
Nissan |
66,922 |
123,504 |
65,065 |
-45.8% |
2.9% |
|
VW/Audi |
37,421 |
51,134 |
37,212 |
-26.8% |
0.6% |
|
Industry |
1,080,656 |
1,516,579 |
1,121,126 |
-28.7% |
-3.6% |
|
*NOTE: June 2020 had 25 selling days, June 2019 had 26 and May 2020 had 26. |
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 11.1 million vehicles in June 2020, with fleet transactions accounting for 13.0% of total sales.
JUNE MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
|
Market |
2020 June |
June |
May |
Change from |
Change from May |
|
GM |
15.5% |
16.7% |
15.8% |
-7.4% |
-1.8% |
|
Toyota |
14.8% |
13.3% |
14.7% |
11.0% |
0.4% |
|
Ford |
13.3% |
14.4% |
13.8% |
-8.1% |
-4.0% |
|
FCA |
11.7% |
13.6% |
12.1% |
-13.9% |
-3.2% |
|
Honda |
10.3% |
9.0% |
10.8% |
15.0% |
-4.5% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
9.6% |
8.1% |
9.3% |
18.6% |
2.8% |
|
Nissan |
6.2% |
8.1% |
5.8% |
-24.0% |
6.7% |
|
VW/Audi |
3.5% |
3.4% |
3.3% |
2.7% |
4.3% |
Q2 SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
|
SALES |
2020 Q2 |
Q2 2019 |
Q1 2020 |
Change from |
Change from Q1 |
|
GM |
482,362 |
745,354 |
617,468 |
-35.3% |
-21.9% |
|
Ford |
417,558 |
644,498 |
514,614 |
-35.2% |
-18.9% |
|
Toyota |
409,501 |
607,927 |
495,747 |
-32.6% |
-17.4% |
|
FCA |
353,787 |
597,685 |
446,768 |
-40.8% |
-20.8% |
|
Honda |
290,105 |
407,208 |
298,784 |
-28.8% |
-2.9% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
275,077 |
359,796 |
272,775 |
-23.5% |
0.8% |
|
Nissan |
178,274 |
351,185 |
257,606 |
-49.2% |
-30.8% |
|
VW/Audi |
100,311 |
152,061 |
120,589 |
-34.0% |
-16.8% |
|
Industry |
2,914,860 |
4,438,956 |
3,503,354 |
-34.3% |
-16.8% |
Q2 MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
|
Market |
2020 Q1 |
2020 Q2 |
Q2 2019 |
Q1 2020 |
Change from Q2 |
|
GM |
16.5% |
16.8% |
17.6% |
-1.4% |
-6.1% |
|
Ford |
14.3% |
14.5% |
14.7% |
-1.3% |
-2.5% |
|
Toyota |
14.0% |
13.7% |
14.2% |
2.6% |
-0.7% |
|
FCA |
12.1% |
13.5% |
12.8% |
-9.9% |
-4.8% |
|
Honda |
10.0% |
9.2% |
8.5% |
8.5% |
16.7% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
9.4% |
8.1% |
7.8% |
16.4% |
21.2% |
|
Nissan |
6.1% |
7.9% |
7.4% |
-22.7% |
-16.8% |
|
VW/Audi |
3.4% |
3.4% |
3.4% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
